New TLD investors face a big challenge: uncertainty.
The application window for new top level domain names opens one month from today.
It’s kind of funny to think about it. The internet community has been working on new TLDs for so many years, and now the hard work is about to begin.
Yet even after all these years there’s still a lot of uncertainty.
With just one month to go…
1. We still don’t know the details of a newly approved program to reduce the application cost for certain needy applicants from $185,000 to $47,000. We just know there is a limited pool of funds. (Memo to non-profits: you still need at least $500k to really do this. Is that your best use of funds? And if you’re really a “needy applicant”, what in the world are you doing allocating this money to a new TLD?)
2. Where does registry/registrar separation stand? Will the “big boys” be able to play both sides?
3. How batching will occur. How do you prevent having your TLD be batched later than a competitor?
4. How will “continuing operations” of new TLD providers by assured? An upfront insurance policy or a letter of credit?
5. When or will there by a second round?
Perhaps there are some resolutions to these that I haven’t seen yet. But if there are, it’s still really late in the game to have answers to these questions.
Add to that the regulatory uncertainty. I don’t think the U.S. — or at least Congress and the NTIA — is going to step in to halt the program. Congress is just going to do a bit of a dog and pony show to appease its “constituents” (aka lobbyists). But it just takes one judge to delay the program. And there’s always an anti-trust issue for existing registrars to think about.
That’s a whole lot of uncertainty for new TLD investors to swallow.
John McCormac says
I’ve just finished a market analysis of the Irish domain market from 2001 to 2011. The impact of the gTLDs (biz/info) is small with each having just under 1% of the market. The .mobi and .asia sTLDs have fractions of a percent. The market itself is dominated by .ie (Irish ccTLD) and .com. The third most popular TLD in Ireland is, ironically, .uk. The .eu spiked in popularity in 2006 and has been sliding ever since. If these patterns play out on a global scale, and there’s every chance that they do, then new gTLDs are going to find it very difficult to gain market share unless they offer something unique. The one thing that will kill a new gTLD is a lack of clear blue water between the registry and the registrars. If users consider that the registry is gaming the system for its own benefit and holding back keyword domains, the users will quickly lose interest. In real terms, the new gTLDs are being launched about five years too late.
Brad says
I have no idea how ICANN can move forward at this point without delaying it.
There are far too many questions to be answered, and most major companies and advertising groups are against the new program in general.
Moving forward at this point without working on these issues would be reckless.
ICANN approved .XXX, an extension that is not even supported by the adult industry. Then there were no protections for TM holders outside paying high prices to “protect their brand” and avoid potential abuse.
I question ICANN’s ability to make decisions based on the greater good, and not on their own financial benefit.
Brad
me says
But wait…there are many more uncertanties as well. How about the question of what happens when a gtld operator needs to go out of business (ie, sales of .silly didn’t meet predictions!)
Or, the question about how they will deal with trademark complaints. Put everything through WIPO? Yeah, sure. There will be zillions of complaints.
With Rod Beckstrom out of the picture, there is a very good chance that the new ICANN board will reverse its prior foolhardy decision and determine that opening Pandorah’s Box may not be such a good idea.
It is moot anyways cuz even if the new extensions do soon go live, I feel that nobody is going to want one anyways. just like .Biz.
Andrew Allemann says
@ me – new TLDs were not Beckstrom’s idea. He just continued with the process.