How many registrations should a new TLD expect?
A call for new top level domain name applicants to be realistic about how many domains they can sell is coming from an unlikely source: domain name registry Afilias.
In a blog post today, Afilias points out that history tells us new TLDs don’t get substantial registrations:
…Well, here we are in 2010 and the industry has now grown to over 190 million domain names. If you think it was because of new TLDs, you’d be wrong.
COM, NET and ORG have grown by over 80 million names. ccTLDs, like China’s CN and Germany’s .DE, have grown about 45 million names in total. But new TLDs have added less than 15 million names. Indeed, from a market share standpoint, new TLDs have never comprised more than 7% of the market.
As a supporter of new TLDs that will make money serving as a back end registry, Afilias’ comments should carry weight.
Afilias points out that, even though it “may not be realistic to assume millions of registrations”, that doesn’t mean you can’t have a successful and profitable top level domain name. It just means that history tells us millions of registrations for a new TLD are unlikely, at least under the current paradigm.
Keep in mind that new TLDs launched over the past decade had little competition. New ones will face hundreds of competitors. That will make it difficult to rise to the top. I expect a number of competitive measures — including very low registry prices for many of the new TLDs — as new TLDs are rolled out.
Michele says
The key thing for everyone is being realistic and sustainable. We don’t want or need a repeat of the past, where applicants made really insane claims about volumes and then failed to achieve even a small fraction of them.
MS says
I think that the vast majority of new gTLD’s will be in the IDN space, For the previously registered and future IDN registrations in the established TLD’s (.com =.ком,.קום etc)
newTLDs.TV says
This advice is like PALM telling Apple to do not expect anything good from iPhone. My advice to new TLD applicants: innovate, innovate, innovate!
Andrew Allemann says
@ newTLDs.tv – when you come across an innovative new TLD, please let me know.
Steve M says
Am looking forward to watching frequent and regular new tld ownership churn in the years to come as one company after another tries to turn all this coming junk into profit.
The new-tlds bubble is coming.
Jim Fleming says
You can accurately predict relative size
via registrations in the ☼-TLD.COM zone.
50,000 solid customers for a MA & PA
TLD Operator can pay the bills. [Early
ISPs were once called “Ma, Pa & a T1”]
What is more interesting is the New Business
Model for Professional Registrars. They should
be able to average $1,000 per domain per year.
Some of that money then has to be spread
around to make the domain work, for SEO,
etc. Securing the Twitter name may be FREE
but someone still has to do it.
With DNS un-regulated and now no longer
100% controlled by one root, Professional
Registrars will help to ensure domains have
market reach & value. It is not unlike being
a PR person and placing ads on TV.
Note, with names now being Folded into .COM
there is a risk? countries or large ISPs
will require a FEE to be visible. A Pro
Registrar can help in that area also.
Large .COM populations, like 4-Letter .COM
owners may be able to negotiate a FREE pass.
NewTLDs.com says
Exciting times in the world of new TLDs ahead!