What role will domain registrars play in five years?
Today, we think of domain name registrars as the place to go to register domain names. But this role will change over the next five years.
Why? If you think “all of the good names are already registered” now, think about what the landscape will look like in five years. Here are some predictions for domain registrars:
1. Registrars become domain managers, not “registrars”. The central role of a registrar will be to provide management tools for customers’ large portfolios of domains and to manage renewals. The registrars with the best management tools will prevail.
2. Registrars depend on aftermarket sales instead of initial registrations. Aftermarket domain name exchanges are integrating with registrars to offer alternatives when a domain is not available. Look for this to become the norm going forward. In fact, registrars will change their search algorithms to push aftermarket sales instead of new registrations.
3. Commercial registrars own the bulk of domain names. Large registrars already keep some of the best expiring domains for themselves. They also have some of the best intelligence about domains including which domain names people are searching for. Registrars will profit off the backs of their customers and snatch up significant domain inventory — something they can turn around and sell on the aftermarket.
Of course, here’s another scenario: There are approximately 37^63 possible .com domains to be registered in roman characters alone (26 letters, ten digits, and hyphens). “True” IDNs come online, expanding the domain pool exponentially. New extensions become the norm. Registrars see explosive growth in registrations.
Nevertheless, I believe registrars that offer the best account management and embrace the aftermarket will be the ones to thrive.
If you agree with this view, then it makes sense for registrars today to offer the lowest possible price for registrations. If they continue to offer reasonable renewal prices and good account management tools, customers won’t transfer out domains. The more customers they lock up today, the more they’ll have in the future.
Alexander says
Conflict of interest:
“Registrars will profit off the backs of their customers and snatch up significant domain inventory — something they can turn around and sell on the aftermarket.”
Top registrars do their best to help their customers keep their domains. Leave those who quickly sell your expired domains at a marketplace.
Do more business with the good registrars who keep informing you and allow more time for renewal. You know when your expired domains will be deleted and you have a good chance to renew them before it’s too late.
Andrew says
Completely agree
Ruben Rodriguez says
An analogy that is frequently used when describing the domain name “rush” is the various land rushes of the 1880’s.
Isn’t the registrars ability to seize control of domains before the general public, equivalent to a land rush agent cherry-picking the prime tracts of land before the general public even has access to that same land?
In both examples, isn’t the agent putatively representing the government?
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Anwar Mehdi says
Yes. I agree
Rusty Kaohelaulii says
I totally agree with the article. Now, think beyond domain names. I will.
Claude Gelinas says
Excellent article!
The registrars aren’t going to let the best names go “back to the general public” for new registrations — those “top-tier names” are most likely kept from the “expected channels”.
The ICANN has to step in an clean up this mess or else the credibility of the domain name market will suffer dearly.
Jason Lavigne - Rebel.com says
“The registrars with the best management tools will prevail.”
I could not agree more! A registrar is only as good as it’s management tools. Those that spend the time developing these tools will succeed while the rest get left behind.
“Commercial registrars own the bulk of domain names”
This absolutely is a conflict of interest. How can you trust your registrar to look out for your best interests if you have to worry about them taking your expired domain to grow their own portfolio. Any registrar actively building their own portfolio must be looked at carefully to determine who’s interests they have at heart, theirs or their clients.
“Registrars will profit off the backs of their customers and snatch up significant domain inventory — something they can turn around and sell on the aftermarket.”
This is not meant to be a shameless plug for Rebel.com, but registrars should follow the normal life-cycle of domains so they cannot horde domain inventory. Good registrars make it their practice to let domains run the course of their lifecycle, ultimately deleting them when they’re not renewed (after several reminders). Therefore, anyone has the same chances of picking up the deleted domain. It’s a conflict of interest for registrars to get a leg up on expiring domains, and most registrars recognize this and value their clients.