Domain names face a number of threats, including AI personal assistants.
Our industry seems to spend a lot of energy battling between the relative value of old top level domain names versus new ones. It doesn’t spend enough time paying attention to the threats that the domain industry faces as a whole.
As I explained on the DNW Predictions podcast last week, one of these possible threats is starting to appear.
A lot of people have said that voice control is a threat to domain names. I disagree. The idea of people telling their web browser where to go via voice does not eliminate the need for navigational signposts like domain names.
Yet, we are now inviting a new way of getting information and ordering goods directly into our living room: Amazon’s Alexa, Google Home and the like. We also have AI-powered personal assistants like Google Assistant and Siri.
Yes, these can use voice. But what makes these different than just using your voice to nagivate is that they anticipate your needs and act as the gatekeeper. So while voice is not a threat to domain names in and of itself, AI-powered assistants are.
If a personal assistant anticipates your needs then you don’t need to go to your browser to find the information you were going to look for. This includes both simple information requests and commerce transactions. That’s bad for domain names.
Consider your personal assistant informing you:
“Your mom’s birthday is in four weeks. May I suggest you order flowers? Say yes to place an order for a dozen flowers, to be delivered on X date, for $29.95”.
Think about the searches and website visits this removes from the ecosystem. An e-commerce transaction can occur without the user ever viewing or thinking about the web.
In many ways, Amazon Echo is a new web browser, too. We ask it questions that we’d normally type on our phone. No domain names and no websites are visible to the user.
It’s unclear how many people own a standalone device like the Echo, but Amazon’s sales over the holidays exceeded even its own expectations, as evidenced by its stockout. And these devices can be built into your phone, such as Google Assistant and Siri, without the need for a separate device.
I think the threat is real. This services don’t eliminate the need for domain names, but they can reduce the value of having a high-quality one.
I hope the domain industry can come together as one rather than fighting about why one name is better than another. There are good reasons that businesses should own their own domain name rather than rely on gatekeepers like Google, Amazon and Facebook. As Matt Mullenweg, creator of Wordpress, told me in DNW podcast #91 this year, it’s more important than ever for people to own their own domain and web presence. But I fear that the utility of the Amazon Echo and personal assistants will make domain names less and less relevant.
We might start seeing some of the effects of this in 2017. We can sit around and gripe about gatekeepers, or we can rally together to spread a message about the importance of not relying solely on the gatekeepers. Call it an independence movement; explaining to people how owning their own domain name frees them from tyranny. Of course, anything we can do to bring domain names into the ecosystem of the ease-of-use of AI assistants will also help.
Andrew,
Good observation. Unquestionably, AI, machine learning (ML) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) will gradually erode the need to access information and/or services via websites and direct navigation.
Registries and registrars need to champion this initiative, imho.
Cheers,
I dont agree that Amazon echo and the like will erode the need for domain names. Dont know about anyone else, but when im ordering flowers I like to shop around for the best price and best looking flowers I can find. I wouldnt just order because Amazon or google suggest a particular one.
If your looking to build an end user driven company, then yes, those access and communications points will come into play more then others. If your building a business on a URL using advanced technology, new business models and connected networks, VNOC, then the url and its utility and utilization capabilities are still in the beginning stages and can ride with the value creation of AI. Embracing tech will rarely disrupt online real estate values if utilized and leveraged correctly..
Andrew we will certainly be talking about this at NamesCon in a few weeks.
There are a number of other new technologies that will grow domain name use and innovation as well as those where we might see some like AI/IA bypass it, so I think there will be churn but not destruction.
Fundamentally, DNS and Domain Names play a role not unlike ‘speed dial’ for the majority of users, so that they don’t need to use IP addresses or remember those complicated 4 numbers of an IPv4 address, and IPv6 addresses are far more complex and challenging to remember, so domain name shortcuts will always have a place. And that sets aside a number of resilience/security and failover systems as well as numerous other benefits.
I look at IoT using DNS transport for state/storage and the fundamental concept of our use of domain names as continuing to hold a future of utility and benefit for domain names.
And never underestimate the sheer staying power of email. I have had my personal domain name jothan.com since 1995 and I don’t see where I’d replace it with an Echo.
With CES this week there are a number of technologies that are poised to inspire thoughts of disruption of the domain name space, and I think you make some valid points, but we had similar concerns with apps being disruptive a few years ago and it really is not manifesting in the way that has demonstrated any impact.
I don’t necessarily disagree with the notion of “assistants” having potential to disrupt, but there are a number of things that need to play out first. Like for one, how much listening exactly is happening.
Law Enforcement ‘Listening’ / Privacy Concerns
Yesterday, there were a large number of articles about potential Law Enforcement uses for a device that is always listening.
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/alexa-witness-murder-prosecutors-seek-amazon-echo-data-44437461
By today, (likely for CES) there has been some whitewashing of those articles (Kudos to Amazon’s press team for leaping on this)
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/tonybradley/2017/01/05/alexa-is-listening-but-amazon-values-privacy-and-gives-you-control/&refURL=https://news.google.com/&referrer=https://news.google.com/
Porn and Redirection
Alexa also carries forward the domain name industry’s “Whitehouse.com effect”, where a toddler launched porn from a request to play a song:
https://youtu.be/epyWW2e43UU
While you may be correct about the ultimate fate of domain names, I suspect that the horizon of that demise may be fairly far vs being imminent.
This notation by you on your DNW 2017 Predictions Podcast was the one that stood out to me the most. I totally agree with all of what you noted above as something that not only can affect domain names, but also online retailing. If one uses Amazon’s Echo, Google Home etc., to order flowers or anything easily ship-able, seems it would be logical for Amazon or Google to (eventually?) use their own goods or suppliers to fulfill those orders, totally bypassing all other retailers. This could lead back to that ‘walled garden’ effect, and perhaps give them a monopoly, on certain ‘easy to order from anywhere’ items. Great maybe for convenience and simplicity of life, but a disaster coming for small online businesses, and for a customers’ choice of retailer options in the future.
Also think about all of those Amazon Dash buttons people have now. Click a physical button to order a product online.
I’ve seen this happening when I was approached by group of Amazon sellers. I help them setup with FB for their products, when I told them to get a domain name nobody’s interested. They not even bother to spend $9. They use gmail.com to conduct business. Maybe a few 10% of them have their own domain name. But those sellers making thousands a week not even bother getting one now or in the future.
Amazon doesn’t allow to include any domain name in any insert, unless you own the product brand (trademarks).
And searching stay within Amazon, similar to FB a closed network.
Using Amazon Echo or Google Assistance, the domain name is become an optional tool. 🙁
Oh well.
If you are investing in domains that have a purpose than AI will most likely adapt to it, just like SEO and PPC did. Exact match keyword domains of high value products/services, short .coms LLL.com NNN.com, etc will most likely not go down in value just for collectibility purposes alone.
Domains have value for advertising purposes and that will never go away. The search aspect came after the advertising aspect. I started buying domains in 1999 for their advertising value, not for algorithmic search engine value.
If you can advertise the domain on the radio or TV and consumers have a high chance of remembering it than the domain clearly has value.
Excellent point about brand value
Keep in mind, in AI world your advertising to radio or TV doesn’t matter. Your contents need to be in Google, FB or Amazon depending on what AI you use.
Agree on the advertising value of domains.
In general, no voice or other search can replace the specificity of a web-address. Search will always require going back and forth.
Look, there are millions of companies with an online presence, hundreds of millions of consumers, and billions of products. It would be impossible for a few large companies to service the whole market as it will be impossible for emerging technology to replace the the natural instinct of people to hunt and enjoy hunting. Yes some of us would want the benefit of having our lives robotized, but I would suggest that the majority would not want to give up the simple pleasure of singing for their supper.
To clarify, a memorable domain name as an address of a specific purchase option would always retain its value in the eyes of consumers. They may sometimes use robotized search, but would still retain attachment to brands and would want to engage with that brand. As the www gets busier and busier, brands would want to get consumers into their doors and help them avoid the stress and the noise getting there. This is where great names would always be more valuable than robotized search, the FaceBooks and the Hashtags.
IMHO Voice Computing will not reduce the value of having high-quality domains.
Direct navigation and websites will always be at the core of the web experience.
Monopolistic positions in Voice Computing by some companies/gatekeepers could be a threat to domains, but the multiplication of players and a fierce but fair competition in the voice business should avoid that.
Maybe governments should also better enforce antitrust and anti-monopolistic actions, that started with browsers longtime ago but it should also include online advertising, search and voice computing …
Anyway I think that many people will prefer to access independently from those gatekeepers, freeing themselves from the tyranny of third parties, as you said. 🙂
“Anyway I think that many people will prefer to access independently from those gatekeepers, freeing themselves from the tyranny of third parties…”
Unfortunately, 90% of the masses have been spoon-fed a steady diet of 3rd party gatekeepers and will find it very difficult to wean themselves from the respective teats of those masters.
Those that don’t navigate directly are unlikely to change in that direction and will likely continue to ride the tide of the new emerging technologies…
Cheers,
I don’t think it’s fair to say they’ve been spoon fed. These gatekeepers provide a valuable service. There’s a reason I re-order stuff through my Echo. It’s very convenient.
Don’t think it’s fair. I would go a little farther and say it is a very ignorant statement. Obviously from a person who thinks he is the smartest person in the room, when he is alone.
P.S.
Voice Computing is basically controlling many devices with your voice, it’s about the interaction between humans and machines with the most natural of tools, your voice.
I don’t think that will tarnish or reduce the branding and advertising value and power of quality domains. 🙂
No AI will search for what most adults search for most nights 😉 And if they did you’d have to find a way to kill your AI assistant when replacing lol
This technology can only serve limited purposes. The AI assistant can’t do your participation for you in a social medium such as a discussion forum, for instance. You may be able to navigate to “ExampleForum.com” by voice or AI, but you still have to engage with the site and know where you are going to begin with.
And even for the purpose of shopping, what about comparison shopping, and searching to find a good deal. How many people are going to content to take the first thing their AI assistant pops up? Who shops that way except extremely careless people?
It depends on what you’re buying the the convenience of who is selling it.
Domains are like hardware and part of the Internet backbone. You cannot just take domain names out of the Internet equation.
Apps, Social Media, AI assistants are like software, built on top of the Internet hardware.
Domains will always have a purpose and will adapt accordingly, like they have all along.
Domain extensions that will survive any competition IMO are as follows:
.Com
.Web
.Net
.Org
.Co
Any threat to domain names – usage or valuations – would impact names that don’t pass the ‘radio test’: Which, in light of these A.I. technologies that are upon us, has become more important than ever before when it comes to assessing a domain name’s worth.
Excellent point.
I’m not arguing that domain names will go away. I’m arguing that there usage could decline. We are talking about a change in how people interact with the net, which will have a profound impact on the web as we know it. I’m sure this change is keeping people at google up at night.
Google knew this day would come long ago. As a digital marketer the trend away from PPC/SEO traffic as growth driver and towards email/social interaction with your existing customers (continual, free branding) happened many years ago.
What domain name you use when emailing your customer is branding to some degree (as well as trust), especially when you are dealing with millions of customers/email addresses. Email isn’t going anywhere.
A business model built around Google, and SEO in particular, does not necessarily have solid long term footing. A website is a business in itself. Too many website owners are simply not good businessman IMO. A good domain provides a key advertising/marketing advantage and always will.
AI will make shot domains worth less.
Voice recognition can understand longer words and therefore longer domains more often. Many billions have been spent to get it to the point where it is now, so unless there is a huge breakthrough this is where it’s heading. NASA is responsible for most of the advancements made so far in VR.
Microsoft is investing a lot as well in voice recognition, which is the entry key of the huge voice computing business.
IMHO voice computing has the potential to become at least as big as cloud computing.
That’s why Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Apple, etc are all massively investing on it …
Damn, never had an offer on SmartVoiceControl …….ummm
Why use your voice at all? We’ll have cognitive computing soon enough and somebody will want CognitiveControl dot com and CognitiveCommand dot com. That is, if domain names are even relevant by then, which I question. 🙁
I love echo and think Amazon’s “new browser” only increases searches. You’ll still refine those searches through a visual browser on the Web. And you’re only one lousy echo-facilitated bunch of roses away from going back to traditional visual browser search and comparative analysis. Google actually becomes the domain owner’s friend because the new battle of competing audio assistants by Apple and Amazon keeps Google turning back better results and better domain names will cut through the clutter and become more important than ever. “Siri, send an email to Malibu.Flowers and tell them some of the roses were dead” ((You’ll need a domain name to send that email, Frank)) ..
If there is any threat to domain names it’s that Echo will drive more consumers to Amazon and regular “stores” die. Lead-gen goes away or evolves (less names needed there). Certain categories of product delivery/fulfillment get handled exclusively through Amazon (like toilet paper and bottled water today). But I think overall growth (in searches, in users) still eclipses any falloff brought by the voice revolution and just like video killed the radio star, goggles and glasses and holograms will trump voice. Speaking of Trump, he or his successor will probably break up Amazon. At some point they just get too big and do it too well. Names still don’t go away because of the need for email which has 95% global penetration, which is the cornerstone of verification systems, which is in every nation, isn;t owned by any single co — and which doesn’t work without a domain..
I’m always scared of the boogeyman when it’s dark out but in our business, this isn’t him. The inertia towards names is still too strong and it’s too difficult for any one platform to viably dis-intermediate websites and email on a global scale.
That’s my penny and a half.
Email will always serve a purpose, but it has and will have competition from mobile phone text messaging.
I think you will see more and more important information being verified and replied to, via mobile phone text messaging and QR codes.
Text messaging has already had an impact on domain names, with people typing in shorter words and acronyms more than ever. This has influenced the buying of short and acronym domain names.
The question is, are domain names going to decline in use or value? NO! Domains are just going to be a lot more mobile going forward.
Domain names, especially .Com’s, will become even more important to businesses in the future and they will continue to increase in value. Supply/demand is coming into play now for .Com’s. Less supply and more demand.
It’s a good time to be a domain name owner, especially if you own .Com names.
Agree on almost all points with Frank, but IMHO goggles and glasses and holograms will not trump voice computing, simply because they are complementary, so I think they will coexist.
Same reasons why desktop will continue to be widely used, coexisting with mobile devices.
Different technologies will coexist, that idea of some innovation destroying any other tool is a baseless mirage … 🙂
I’ll take your penny and a half in bitcoin please Frank? 🙂
I have to agree with a lot of what Frank said there, and I have also posted recently about what I referred to as the “monolithic” nature of email.
Isn’t Google itself already the biggest enemy of domain names to begin with? Hasn’t Google already been doing everything it (they) can to obliterate the importance of domain names because domain names threaten their wealth, power and dominance?
I think Andrew’s points should be taken seriously by our industry.
He’s not saying that domains will go away. His point is that we face the chance of reduced importance (which could certainly affect the growth we’ve enjoyed for 20 years).
We’re in an industry that has seen fantastic and steady growth each year for 20 years plus. I’m bearish on domains but we drink our own cool-aid if we believe that disruption is not possible. People use convenience. When it becomes more convenient for someone to use, remember, say, or point to a destination with some other device than a domain name, then it is possible that domain names can become less important.
Domain names are simply an easy pointer to a number (IP Address). If someone comes up with an easier method to reach a number, who knows? Certainly we should be discussing these possibilities within the industry (rather than arguing about traditional and new domains).
Two years ago, I had similar thoughts about QR Codes. I’m no fan of them and I believe that URLs are way more valuable and important. I dedicated a whole blog to it (http://domainsarebetter.com/). So far, it’s been pretty much left alone. But we’re very close to OS driven QR/BAR code readers. They will work and they are faster than typing in URLs. That’s just one possibility and doesn’t even consider AI. (By the way, I registered the domain, “VoiceBased.com” in the year 2000).
With all their faults, the industry behind QR codes makes great strides in other important industries. For example, read this: https://www.wired.com/2016/07/qr-codes-gmo-labeling-actually-great-idea/. The US Govt. recently required QR codes on GMO foods. Who did that?… The bar code industry lobbying the food industry.
Anyway, I think Andrew’s point should be taken seriously and discussed within our industry. No business is immune to disruption today.
Maybe it’s cause I’m not surrounded by rich people, but that will never happen with anyone I know. I do not know 1 person that would say , sure send them flowers I don’t care about knowing the price. The people I know will not only search for the best deal, but also enter a coupon code for it.
Darn it, I meant “Bullish on domain names” not “Bearish”
Thanks,
Joe
Btw, The Economist just published a very interesting article about Voice Computing, which is also the greatest breakthrough of CES 2017, currently live in Las Vegas.
Here is the article: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21713836-casting-magic-spell-it-lets-people-control-world-through-words-alone-how-voice
Now if only there was an association that was looking out for the Domain Name Industry and speaking publically about these things… oh wait… http://www.thedna.org
In my view, domain names adds to the credibility of the overall business storyline and failing to refer to it (namely through AI) becomes one more missed opportunity to have it have a shot at earning more mindshare.
At my registry, http:://mbnx.com/ I’ve had hundreds of new domain name extensions added but AI is moving in so fast, I’m not sure people will have enough time to learn about the “.club” , “voyage” and “.tips” suffixes to actually “miss them” (because they probably won’t even know they exist).
As such, AI could be moving in so fast that what’s known as the expansion phase of the domain names suffixes could basically miss its target of making the domain names ecosystem more prevalent and useful, to more people.
So yes, we need to talk about this particular subject and thanks for bringing it up.
Domain names are 1) globally unique 2) defined by the registrant, 3) easily used by humans 4) entrenched and integral to the world economy.
In other words:
1) there is only one “amazon.com”. When one uses a domain name (for example, by typing it in a browser, or clicking on a link), it will “go to” one and only one website worldwide.
amazon.com goes to the same website whether or not you are in China, the UK or the South Africa. It does *not* “go to” a porn website in china and an e-commerce site in the US. It does not need to be disambiguated with a question such as “which amazon.com do you mean? the porn one, the search one, the commerce one, the rainforest one?”. Its born pre-disambiguated.
2) That “place” it “goes to” is defined by the registrant. It is *not* defined by whoever made your laptop or cell phone, or the operating system on that device, or by the web-browser maker, or what someone (or machine) thinks society’s definition of the word “amazon” is, or defined by anyone else. Its defined by one and only one party: the registrant. Not only does it go to the “place” defined by the registrant, but what is at that “place” (the content there) is also defined by the registrant.
3) Humans do not use numbers, or lengthy descriptions to refer to something, we use names. We uses names, especially when the names are well-defined. When they are ambiguous and not well defined, then we fall back to using one or multiple descriptive words, and when that does not suffice we used descriptions. Numbers suck because they do not have much meaning, and they are hard for humans to remember.
4) The domain name system is very entrenched… its built into the law in nearly all countries of the world. Trademarks, etc. The DNS is very hard to dislodge. This has been proven, time and again over 30 years. No other alternative has been able to dislodge it, though many have tried. Not keywords, not real names, not search, not icons for phone apps, not even alternative roots not by the UN or by various governments.
When it comes to voice AIs like Apple’s Siri, Amazon’s Echo/Alexa, Google’s Assistant/Home, and the like, I believe they’ll make domain names more prominent, not less. Why?
First off, one speaks to these devices. Domain names are spoken words that humans can remember and are meaningful. Check.
Second, the definition of the the domain name is specified by the registrant. Not by Apple, Amazon or Google. Normal words do not have that property. If I say “buy Tide”, Siri may interpret that one way, and Alexa, another. “Tide” is also what happens to the ocean. There are different interpretations to the word “buy” too. What would happen if Sun Products (the maker of “Surf” detergent), made a deal with Amazon, so that when someone said “buy Tide”, Amazon sold the Surf brand instead? Or what if Amazon pre-empts that Tide purchase with their own Amazon branded detergent? Saying “Buy Tide” to Siri, would have a different result compared saying “buy Tide” to Google? Domain names solve that problem. As an example, “tide.buy” would be defined by the registrant of that domain name. The registrant specifies what it is that Siri, Alexa, or Google’s Assistant would do (and any others that pop up – just like there are different browsers from Apple, Google, Microsoft, etc). If you are selling Tide, are you going to trust all these services to do the right thing, or are you going to tell your potential customers “just say ‘tide.buy’ to whatever device you have in your kitchen”.
Third, domains are globally unique. True, when someone types (a domain name), its very specific, and when one speaks (a domain name) its ambiguous (did you say “beer” or “bear” or “bare” or “bar” for example), but these devices have that problem (and they will get better and better at it) whether or not one is speaking a domain name or not a domain name. At least domain names confine the problem to determining what you said, not to determining what to do. Hearing “dot”, Siri’s search-space is confined to the registered domain names that have a “voice” (lets call it, as opposed to a MX or A record) entry in the DNS, as opposed to any mix of words and sounds that can be possibly uttered by a human.
Fourth, Domain names are not going away. If a naming system is to be used with these AI’s, and we think this new use for domain names is inevitable, there is no alternative to the DNS.
The entire purpose of domain names is to tell computers what we humans mean. We envision these AIs will work nearly the same as the web works now.
step 1: invoke a registrant-defined name: on the web, this means typing it into a browser, or clicking on a link. In the voice world, it means speaking the domain name.
step 2: you are brought to a “place” that outputs content, specified by the registrant. In the web case, its text and/or pictures, in the AI case its the AI speaking and/or it taking an action.
step 3: depending on the content, you interact with the “place”. The place is the same even though you may use different browsers. In the web case, if the content is a form, you fill in the form elements and click submit. In the AI case, it asks you questions (the text in the form) and you answer them (the form fields you fill in).
The purpose of search is to get you to invoke a registrant-defined name, unless the search engine is extremely confident regarding what you mean (for example, if you type “what is the weather” or “who is the 14th president” into Google), in which case it will answer your query, AND output a list of domain names.
For these reasons, I believe domain names will become more and more relevant in the future with AIs, not less.
One more thing. Donuts has built a prototype Alexa-Dash lovechild. Dash is that Amazon service whereby you press a button when you are low on Tide, and a box of Tide shows up at your house later that day. Our lovechild does the same thing without the button. Just say a domain, for example “tide.buy” to Alexa. Alexa replies “Do you want to buy a box of Tide?” (configurable by the registrant – could also just do it) , you say “yes”. Done. A box of Tide shows up on your door stoop. Its Dash without the hardware using domain names with the action defined by the registrant.
Paul, thanks for providing your thoughts.
Regarding the Alexa-Dash prototype, that sounds cool. How is it different from telling Alexa “reorder Tide”? It it because the user defines the action to be taken with the domain name?
the registrant decides the action (or the conversation) and its AI/device-independent. That action would be the same no matter what the AI/device is.
you’d “program” your Alexa/Siri/Assistant action/conversation at your registrar, the same as you would build a html form/page at your domain name now.
Love it Paul! Wait I think I hear my doorbell now – Tides here!
Hi Paul, The Donuts dash deal sounds awesome. Where is a link to something about that? Thx, Joe
its in prototype, not read for prime time. the “bare.buy” vs “bear.buy” problem is one issue (that i mentioned). That problem does not exists when typing domains.
related: due to this “homonym” problem (and speaking is easier than typing), I agree (with Brawn above) longer domain names are not a problem, actually a benefit.
I’m going to simplify this for myself by referring to the radio test as far as names/domains go – I’ve been saying that for a long time now that voice activation is just that but in reverse 🙂 can you hear me/name now 🙂
I think you’re mistaken Andrew, domains will actually increase in importance in an AI led world.
People want options, not everyone eats at McDonalds you know.
I wrote a blog post outlining some of the reasons, please take a look.