More likely, but not guaranteed.
When ICANN published its proposed contract extension with Verisign for the .com contract, it didn’t discuss the question of pricing.
.Com prices are currently capped at $7.85 wholesale. The extension, from 2018 to 2024, didn’t touch the pricing element. But the understanding was that Verisign and the U.S. government, which has a cooperative agreement with Verisign for .com, would address this when the cooperative agreement expired in 2018.
But Phil Corwin (new podcast) of the Internet Commerce Association reports that ICANN’s board ultimately added a clause extending the price freeze to 2024. This is proof that commenting in the ICANN process works; this would not have happened if domain name investors had not raised the issue.
That said, the price freeze is only frozen until it isn’t. Verisign and the U.S. government will certainly revisit the issue when the cooperative agreement comes up for renewal in two years. The government has the capability to force renewal of the agreement, but anytime there’s a discussion, there’s a chance for change.
For example, if the two parties agree to allow Verisign to increase prices nominally in return for some other provision, then ICANN and Verisign would be forced to adjust its contract.