During the first week of the Chinese New Year, Chinese buyers remained active, as I reported last time. Although many predicted a lull in purchasing, prices stayed on course. Domains had expired. Back in December or January. And buyers still showed up to bid on them as before.
Now, ending the “Monkey’s” 2nd week, China is showing its first bit of growth after more than 2 months of decline. You can see this most clearly by looking at LLLL.com “CHIPs”. By the first week of February, this category had sunk to $1.7k – $2.2k. Now they’re up, with 8 selling between $2168 and $2560. That’s a gain of about $350 (15%) in a week or two. We’ll see where this volatile market goes next.
Domain | End $ | At | Domain | End $ | At |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
EXUE.com | 31,401 | NJ | 79558.com | 6720 | NJ |
BlueZone.com | 5199 | NJ | Cashy.com | 4356 | SN |
StreetDance.com | 3936 | NJ | V92.com | 3600 | NJ |
Besso.com | 3500 | SN | BBQ.org | 3433 | NJ |
OmegaHat.org | 2700 | NJ | AmericaSpeaks.org | 2607 | NJ |
DiGui.com | 2605 | SN | BZMY.com | 2560 | NJ |
GDTL.com | 2501 | NJ | BLWK.com | 2460 | SN |
AustinCondo.com | 2439 | NJ | PGMJ.com | 2400 | NJ |
GCNW.com | 2301 | NJ | GreyGhost.com | 2280 | NJ |
CHKM.com | 2265 | NJ | PSKR.com | 2208 | SN |
NSXD.com | 2168 | SN | HeartFailure.org | 2100 | NJ |
By far the highest sale last week was a 4-letter non-CHIP. In Chinese, xué (学) means “science” / “learn” / “study”. Perhaps that’s why a Chinese bidder grabbed EXUE.com for $31.4k. So far during 2016, only 3 expired domains have cleared 5 figures at SnapNames or NameJet; and they’ve all been Chinese … even Tesila.com. Significantly, the biggest was another 4-letter non-CHIP. Remember hearing about TOOT.com a month ago? Well, it wasn’t bought for its English meaning after all – only for its symmetry.
BBQ.org ($3.4k) sure looks like a barbecue. But these days who knows? Maybe the American buyer regards it as Chinese! By the way, .ORG was on a roll last week, racking up 6 auctions over $1k. Those ranged from medical conditions like HeartFailure.org ($2.1k) and Osteoporosis.org ($1.6k) to brandable phrases like AmericaSpeaks.org ($2.6k) and CollegeUp.org ($1.1k). Social impact – that’s the underlying theme.
In case you’re wondering, OmegaHat.org ($2.7k) is a 16-year-old open-source project enabling statistical computing in browsers. Uglier than sin, that website, but back-links galore. BlueZone.com ($5.2k) looks like a website called BlueZones.com, which tells people how to live longer. Besso.com ($3.5k) is a surname used by several companies, including this UK insurance group. Finally, we’re back in China with DiGui.com ($2.6k) – Pinyin for “recursion” or “recurrence” (递归 / dì guī).
Domain | End $ | At | Domain | End $ | At |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
60358.com | 1825 | NJ | SleepTech.com | 1769 | NJ |
7XF.com | 1710 | NJ | SiteClub.com | 1609 | NJ |
Osteoporosis.org | 1600 | NJ | MyCookBook.com | 1575 | NJ |
GoToCitrix.com | 1550 | SN | CrimeLine.com | 1500 | NJ |
WECG.com | 1461 | SN | HG915.com | 1460 | SN |
GhostFace.com | 1383 | SN | GlassMart.com | 1378 | NJ |
PromptCare.com | 1220 | NJ | Emara.com | 1125 | NJ |
CollegeUp.org | 1076 | NJ | 41720.com | 980 | SN |
DSMA.com | 955 | NJ | WhiteFog.com | 930 | NJ |
CDBurner.com | 911 | NJ | Fasti.com | 899 | NJ |
A few years ago, when we listened to music on CDs and transferred data via CD-ROM, when exact-match domains led more quickly to high SERP rankings, CDBurner.com would have sold far above $911. Even now, it’s worth more. Plenty of CDs out there worth copying. My storage unit is filled to the ceiling with them.
Emara.com ($1.1k) is the surname of a laser eye surgeon as well as the owner of a Saudi Arabian construction company founded in the year 1427. Don’t be too shocked; that was just 10 years ago! Among the Romans, Fasti.com ($899) were chronological lists of important events. Ovid wrote a poem called “Fasti”, which is generally translated as the “Book of Days”. These days, there’s an archaeological project called Fasti. And apparently “fasti” means “splendors” if spoken today in Rome by an Italian.
SiteClub.com ($1.6k) and SleepTech.com ($1.8k) both suggest nTLD variants. However, Site.Club cannot be registered, and Sleep.Tech would cost $6.5k per year at GoDaddy. In the case of PromptCare.com ($1.2k), Prompt.Care is already registered.
Domain | End $ | At | Domain | End $ | At |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ESGN.com | 898 | NJ | MakeApps.com | 883 | SN |
Vican.com | 881 | SN | 49407.com | 826 | SN |
CarterObservatory.org | 811 | SN | Tebon.com | 800 | SN |
EquityMortage.com | 781 | SN | 444426.com | 780 | NJ |
CunCunDa.com | 780 | SN | TFSI.com | 767 | NJ |
SpaBeauty.com | 760 | NJ | ElectionPoll.com | 755 | SN |
HotRodGarage.com | 730 | NJ | ShantiBit.com | 712 | SN |
BackPainEurope.org | 710 | NJ | Sassenberg.com | 705 | SN |
In the USA, there’s a Vican making pumps; in Sweden, furniture. Vican.com ($881) might upgrade the domain of either. Tebon.com ($800) matches a fitness guru named Becca Tebon. But there’s also a Chinese website built on the matching .COM.CN. Sassenberg.com ($705) is a German town. What CunCunDa.com ($780) means in Chinese I’m not sure.
Domain | End $ | At | Domain | End $ | At |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GAFISud.info | 700 | NJ | eSoho.com | 695 | NJ |
TeleTouch.com | 685 | NJ | 1982888.com | 679 | SN |
9988777.com | 676 | NJ | Diluted.com | 665 | NJ |
LaVitrina.com | 616 | NJ | KnowTheWay.com | 609 | NJ |
7373.biz | 600 | SN | KidQuest.com | 579 | NJ |
PJIA.com | 575 | SN | EBMX.com | 543 | NJ |
RRRRB.com | 534 | NJ | HiPlaza.com | 529 | SN |
Rouen-Musees.com | 526 | SN | FalseAllegations.com | 510 | NJ |
OneDB.com | 507 | NJ | ZAFG.com | 505 | SN |
In Spanish, LaVitrina.com ($616) means “The Showcase” – literally a shop window or display case. “LaVitrina” is also the title of a ravishing piece of art. Really, give it a glance! Rouen-Musees.com ($526) are museums in Rouen, France.
Apparently, GAFISud.info ($700) stands for el “Grupo de Acción Financiera de Sudamérica” – “a regional inter-governmental organization which brings together the countries of South America in order to combat money-laundering and terrorism financing”.
Domain | End $ | At | Domain | End $ | At |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
XXOB.com | 500 | SN | DZD.biz | 495 | SN |
Propagator.com | 495 | NJ | Wikapedia.com [sic] | 484 | SN |
ANDZ.com | 482 | NJ | BTIKansas.com | 482 | NJ |
KitchenLine.com | 469 | SN | Receivables Financing.com |
467 | NJ |
VKCM.com | 460 | NJ | 3832222.com | 460 | SN |
Wired965.com | 459 | NJ | Chudak.com | 454 | SN |
PrankVideo.com | 450 | SN | CargoKing.com | 436 | NJ |
WhoIndia.org | 430 | NJ | QuickHouse.com | 425 | NJ |
Chudak.com ($454) means “poor”, “wretch”, “pauper”, and “wimp” in Czech. It’s also some poor wretch’s last name! In Poland, meanwhile, it’s a coal company. A Propagator.com ($495) is a contraption you can buy that helps seeds germinate.
Domain | End $ | At | Domain | End $ | At |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
DH100.com | 425 | SN | NookDevs.com | 424 | SN |
Wilders.org | 410 | NJ | Embedr.com [sic] | 410 | NJ |
PassionArt.com | 409 | SN | MotorCityRocks.com | 405 | NJ |
SouthernBBQ.com | 402 | NJ | Proaktive.com | 401 | SN |
Problem Playground.com |
400 | SN | 饮水机.com (xn--nqvr4in00c.com) |
396 | SN |
Outdoor PressRoom.com |
390 | SN | VTGrocers.org | 385 | NJ |
Canada Directory.net |
379 | SN | M0T.com | 375 | SN |
NYBlues AndJazz.org |
375 | NJ | Marquel.com | 371 | NJ |
WBEK.com | 370 | NJ | PTGU.com | 360 | NJ |
ZGTI.com | 360 | NJ | 991213.com | 354 | SN |
YVWP.com | 350 | SN | HVMO.com | 350 | NJ |
CREHST.org | 350 | NJ |
Just 1 month ago, I pointed out a Chinese IDN sale – only the 2nd ever in these charts. (The first had come 6 months prior.) And I suggested that we might see a trend beginning. It isn’t a huge trend, but it’s there. The 6th IDN so far – 饮水机.com (yǐn shuǐ jī), which means “drinking fountain” – sold for $396.
SouthernBBQ.com ($402) gives us our 2nd “BBQ” domain this week. Y’all can be sure that one ain’t Chinese. Marquel.com ($371) is a man’s first name here in the States. Detroit is the city in MotorCityRocks.com ($405).
Exactly a year ago, I reported that CREHST.org had expired and sold. Whoever bought it didn’t set much store by it; for here it is, having expired and sold again – coincidentally for just 5 bucks less than last year.
Ramesh says
I just don’t understand. On one side as you mentioned Chinese domain sales are rising while on the other side Domain Gang keeps posting daily how the Chinese economy and domain sales are falling and are declining.
How can such a small industry like domaining have 2 different conflicting sides. I dont get it. Whic is right.
Please help a newbie investor
Steve says
They don’t even report the sales at godaddy or pheenix where .cc is always selling. Lots of unreported sales flying under most radar.
Joseph Peterson says
@Steve,
It’s true. These articles don’t address DropCatch, GoDaddy Auctions, Pheenix, or any of the smaller specialized drop catchers.
I also exclude auctions managed by domain owners, preferring to discuss an expired domain market where sellers don’t distort the results.
Plus, I don’t report the majority of expiry auctions. At NameJet, some late bloomers (with backorders at the 11th hour) get missed. And beneath my minimum price threshold, whole categories get left out.
Until about a year ago, I did include GoDaddy results. Then GoDaddy “went dark”. That required me to change the way I collect data from GoDaddy. I still gather it, but I don’t write about it publicly.
Even with just SnapNames and NameJet results >$250, these articles usually require me to write about 250-350 auctions. That’s plenty. In fact, it’s too much. No room for the other guys. Unless you’re paying me to write more articles telling you what I see elsewhere, I can’t justify the time.
While SnapNames and NameJet are not a perfect representation of the broader market, they’re big enough that they show most trends fairly accurately.
Joseph Peterson says
@Ramesh,
Market prices go up and down. Partly that’s short-term fluctuation. Partly it’s a question of mid and long-term trends. Here’s a chronological summary:
1. From 2008 to 2014, LLLL.com domains were stagnant, selling at very low floor prices among wholesale buyers. As late as December 2014, market demand was such that they’d frequently sell beneath $25. Not $2500 … $25.
2. During 2015, unprecedented activity in China caused this market sector to surge. Seeing rapid growth, Chinese speculators were in a mad rush to buy. Western domainers caught wind of this, bidding up prices still further. Ultimately, at the market peak, LLLL.com “CHIP” prices reached nearly $4000 (median) / $3000 (floor).
3. But throughout December and January, Chinese categories were in steep steady decline. That’s something I documented in detail. (See the link in the article above for the data, calculations, graphs, etc.) By the first week of February, LLLL.com “CHIPs” without repeating letters were selling between $1.7k and $2.2k. They had lost nearly half their value.
4. Now, after 9 weeks of decline, we have 1 week of upward price motion.
If Theo at DomainGang said that Chinese domain sales were in decline during December or January, then that observation was correct.
Early in the Fall of 2015, while prices were still climbing, I wrote publicly that I considered this Chinese surge to be fundamentally unsound, fueled by irrational speculation and hype. In many regards, it’s uncomfortably like a crowd-sourced pyramid scheme. And China’s stock market has a worrisome penchant for pump-and-dump schemes, leading to billions in fraud and high-profile arrests. Part of me wonders if the Chinese surge wasn’t seeded in that way.
Personally, I consider this Chinese market sector for liquid domains to be undergoing a bubble, and I have predicted that it will partially deflate during 2016. That isn’t to say that demand in China will go away; it certainly won’t. But domains seem to be trading far above their real wholesale value. Ultimately domains aren’t currency. They’re assets. And their wholesale value will settle in a price range based on the chance of resale to end users.
That’s just my opinion. As an empiricist, I wait for evidence. And I live to be proved wrong.
People argue about the future. Especially when they’re invested in assets and trying to recruit buyers. Financial motives tend to get in the way. But even without that bias, the future is always uncertain. Predictions will differ.
We may want unanimity or an authoritative answer, and plenty of experts will step forward to slam their fist down on the table telling you what’s what. But nobody really knows the future. If you’re sensible, then you’ll invest without looking for certainty. Just estimate the risks.
Ramesh says
Thank you Joseph for your very detailed comment, I appreciate it. I have learned a lot and my overall conclusion is that I will refrain from the risk of LLLL.coms.I dont want to stay with any “pumpkins” in my portfolio.
I will instead invest in 2 word dot coms especially ones I can develop
Thanks again
Joseph Peterson says
@Ramesh,
Ultimately there is no “wrong” category. It’s just a question of how a person’s business strategy fits with the different categories available.