Some of these TLDs can’t string along much longer.
Hundreds of new top level domain names are now available. Some are doing reasonably well while others are not (to put it mildly).
Will 2015 see the first new TLD “failures”, in which a top level domain operator calls it quits? We might have seen it already.
The companies I’m most concerned about are the ones that operate just one or two TLDs and have a big staff (i.e., lots of overhead). If they aren’t getting traction after about a year, I don’t think they have long to go.
ICANN tried to bake in a backup plan for failed registries by requiring them to have a credit line in the event of failure. I think that’s a funny notion; if a TLD fails, who would really back its credit line?
The most likely scenario for failed TLDs is that they’ll be gobbled up by another registry or a backend technical registry.
In some ways, we’re seeing that already. Innovative Auctions has already helped sell one existing TLD. .HIV and .Promo (the latter of which hasn’t even launched) will be auctioned this summer.
Failing any interest in these auctions, the backend registry providers will likely take over the day-to-day operation of failed TLDs.
Some TLDs have needlessly hobbled themselves with onerous registration restrictions. This limits interest by other parties, and ICANN might need to consider a way to relax these restrictions in the event of a TLD passing to another entity in light of a shutdown.
I’m not excited about the prospect of failed TLDs. But reality will catch up to a number of operators soon. Just look at the bottom of this list.
John McCormac says
Some of them have not launched yet so it might be unfair to compare unlaunched TLDs with launched TLDs. The problem with expectations for new gTLD performance is that many people expect them to develop like the large TLD launches of the immediate past. The reality is that some of the new gTLDs have the same slow burn characteristics that are typically seen in ccTLDs.
The main thing about failed registries is that much of the initial development costs will have been sunk into the operation so any potential purchaser will want to base the price tha it pays on the number of domains under management and the renewal rates.
Omaha.Community says
I scrolled down the list and yeah, the numbers are in large part unimpressive, but you’re looking at this from a domain-investor point of view. Most of these new registrars aren’t delusional enough to think they’re going to someday supplant .com as the top extension; however, they are filling a void by providing cool, brandable names at competitive prices.
I love Omaha.Community, but have zero interest in owning OmahaCommunity.com. From an aesthetics standpoint, many of these gtlds look great and they WILL rank on google once you have content.
Times…they are a changin’…
Andrew Allemann says
I’m not looking at this from a domain investor point of view. I’m looking at it from the view of a sustainable business.
jane says
Pretty much.
Donuts can carry a GTLD with only a handful of registrations while an operator with a single GTLD can’t afford to only have a handful of registrations and will need to re-evaluate their operation or move out.
However, ICANN has a back up where if an operator does fail, the GTLD is transferred to a temporary operator while they try to find a new home so people wont just lose their names.
I agree aesthetically pleasing is a great reason to register a name, but that doesn’t help the operator if they fail to get the registrations happening.
John says
Well I’ve said as much before, .money could be very popular and successful imo but is priced for failure.
Snoopy says
Personally think .club could be one of those companies, current losing money with a hefty staff of 16, $2.1 million revenue and projections of spending several million on marketing this year.
They seem to be reliant on capital raisings and look to have some pretty high growth expectations, so if things turn out like it has for donuts strings after a year (i.e. falling numbers) then it may well result in them losing ability to rase more funds. The next few months will be crucial for them.
I don’t believe they are viable in current form may need to sell out to a “lean operator” if those renewals don’t go well.
Eric says
At this early in the rollout process, it’s not just a registration numbers game. How did adoption for .com look after one year? More TLDs equals more competition and choice for users. The lasting impact of the program won’t just be about more domains, but about better, more personalized domains.
Christopher Hofman Laursen says
History repeats itself. How many American car brands were there in 1920? Hundreds. All industries consolidate, and new TLDs is no exception.
If we go by the 80/20 rule, then 20% of new TLDs will run off with 80% of the registrations. I earlier estimated that only around 50 of the 800 new TLDs will be a success, so expect more zombies and more consolidations