Most people think low five figures.
We’re starting to get an idea of how many registrations new top level domain names can expect to get in the short term now that dozens have launched.
This year’s Domain Name Wire survey asked “On average, how many second level registrations do you expect each new TLD to have one year after general availability for the domain starts?”
The median response to this question was 12,000 and the average was 41,054.
The average is higher due to a handful of really high responses.
Neither of these numbers seems that far off base. Many domains will be measured in the tens of thousands, some will be in just the thousands, and we’ll probably have some that eclipse the 100k mark.
As of right now, the top new top level domain name is .club with over 60,000 registrations. 8 new domain names have more than 20,000 registrations and about 20 top the 10,000 mark.
Philip says
The Geos should do very well
Joseph Peterson says
Year 1 registrations are interesting. But subsequent years are what really count.
We’ll need to look at the probability of a domain dropping versus being renewed.
Importantly, there’s no reason to believe that this probability will be uniform across different nTLDs. Prices differ widely, for one thing. And we’d expect more expensive domains to drop at higher rates. Also, many nTLD registrations are speculative. So n extension’s perceived subsequent success will affect the drop rate.
Today, .HIPPOPOTAMUS may have a large total, whereas .CROCODILE may be lagging behind. But if the drop rate is 80% per year for .HIPPOPOTAMUS and 40% per year for .CROCODILE, then the predator will soon overtake the prey.
Man o War says
I think all of the new extensions will be considered irrelevant, worthless and dead by Christmas of this year, 2014.
Adam Wagner says
Banality but End-users will just decide – whether they prefer 1-word-keyword.whatever or 2-3-word-keyword.com-killer (and/or premium-dot-com acquisitions ofcourse). Time will show, depending on marketing efficiency of new registries and their business partners (registrars & resellers). The fact is that uncontested leading position of .com and even ‘old alternatives’ like .net and .org will grow in my opinion, together with potential growth of some of new-gTLDs.
A bit different case may be, surprisingly, in regard to new markets. According to ICANN’s predictions, the majority of new internet users in next 5 years will come from Middle East and Africa. Thus, I would not be surprised if new-gTLD program benefited at most from MENA markets, not necessarily at North America and Europe where .com and ccTLDs are and will be the fundament.
‘New-ccTLD’ – .uk – is also very interesting and prosperous case I think. Nominet is doing really good job at at the wave of new-gTLD.
By the way – I am sure that for .com there is still a lot of room, the more in couple countries which lead in economy growth and where online presence has not been the priority apparently (does the last one sound mysterious? Yes it does, but markets familiarity is also a business) 🙂 ~AW