Joseph Peterson considers what will happen when new TLDs come around for renewal.
2014 will be remembered — by those conscious of the domain industry at least — as the year of the TLD experiment. To what extent extensions such as .GURU, .PHOTOGRAPHY, .RICH, .LONDON, or .中文网 catch on with the general public remains to be seen. For a year, the question has been hotly debated. But it’s not a question; it’s hundreds of distinct questions, since hundreds of distinct new TLDs are part of this year’s rollout.
No second level domains registered under these new top level domains will expire in 2014, and today the expired domain market remains divorced from all the nTLD hubbub. Inevitably, though, large numbers of .CEOs and .VENTURES and .ENTERPRISES will turn up in expired auctions a year from now. During 2014, registration numbers can only go up. Yet during 2015, both upward and downward effects will coexist. In a sense, 2015 is the “tock” to 2014’s “tick”.
Actually, we can forecast 2015 to some degree. As of today, .GURU remains the most registered of the nTLDs — 55,355 total, according to nTLDStats.com. So let’s look at .GURU’s older siblings. I’m referring to .COM domains with a “GURU” suffix that were registered a year ago:
NameJet Pending Delete Domains
Period Covered: 3 days
Quantity: 67
Total Bids: 0
NameJet Pre-Release Domains
Period Covered: 33 days
Quantity: 48
Total Bids: 0
GoDaddy Expired Auctions:
Period Covered: 9 days
Quantity: 65
Total Bids: 0
GoDaddy Closeouts:
Period Covered: 5 days
Quantity: 33
Total Bids: N/A
This picture is incomplete, of course. Most importantly, other domains with comparable expiration dates were renewed. And these auctions aren’t over. I’d expect some bids before they’re concluded. Some closeouts may have been purchased already, vanishing from the numbers above. The keywords here won’t correspond exactly to registered .GURUs. And it may be argued that the .GURU release affects renewal decisions for these Guru .COMs. Yet that influence cuts both ways, since some .GURU owners buy matching .COMs.
Take a look at the lists and draw your own conclusions:
Andrew Allemann says
I recall that .co’s first year renewal rates in the upper 60%s was considered high compared to previous new TLD first renewal anniversaries. I’m curious how high renewal prices on many of these new TLDs will affect first year renewals.
todd says
“I recall that .co’s first year renewal rates in the upper 60%s was considered high”
and .CO was at only 30 bucks for a renewal. Half the people that registered these new gTLDs don’t even know what the renewal rate is. Even the superstar domainers don’t even know what their renewal rate is if you ask them.
These new extensions will have less than 20% renewal rate if their lucky.
Domenclature.com says
I haven’t checked to see if there’s anything to stop new gTLD Registries from demanding renewals after 4 or 5 or 7 months. Have you?
Andrew Allemann says
They can only
forceask you to renew a domain when it expires. Just like any other domain.Kassey says
I truly enjoy this piece by Joseph. I read almost all blogs listed on Domaining.com everyday and I particularly like those with original idea and perspective. This piece is definitely one of them. While it is only a small sample, it does, in my opinion, give us a hint of what the renewal of many new gTLDs may look like. Good job.
Joseph Peterson says
Just for the sake of accuracy, let me point out that these numbers represent a snapshot of what I saw on May 8, 2014.
Those numbers change hour by hour, day by day, as bids are placed, expiring domains are renewed, and other domains expire.
Tracking these numbers is complicated by the fact that NameJet requires a bid to see the auction results — at least, to see them in the most convenient way. But I should know the results for this set of GoDaddy domains later this week.
Patricia Kaehler says
Response from anyone that knows – Appreciated…
Question:
Where online can I look to see specifically what names in these “other” extensions are being registered… not just the quantity… but the actually registered domain ??
Thanks in advance…
~Patricia — Ohio USA — DomainBELL
if you need it — eMail: DomainBELL@DomainBELL.com
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