Company forecasts only 4 of its new TLD strings having over 50,000 DUM after three years.
For the most part, new top level domain applicants have remained quiet about their registration projections.
There’s a good reason for this, especially if they’re in a contention set with other applicants. If competitors know how many domains they expect to register, they can back into how much the other company might pay in an auction.
But Afilias is an exception to this lack of disclosure. All but one of its 26 applications include a forecast for the number of domains under management (DUM) after three years. They also include some sort of justification, and sometimes use qualifiers such as noting that the forecast is conservative.
Here are the company’s DUM forecasts for each of its applications:
.app not disclosed
.info (Chinese IDN) 5,000
.mobi (Chinese IDN) 5,000
These numbers are a lot lower than what I think many applicants are expecting.
Public Interest Registry, the registry for .org, has a goal of 1 million .ngo registrations. That would require about 1 in 10 non governmental organizations to register the domain. There’s no timeline to this goal, and it’s possible Afilias has similar long term goals for some of its domains.
(It’s also possible that Afilias sandbagged its forecasts to make competitors think Afilias will bid less at auction than it really will.)
Another comparison is a pitch deck for Domain Venture Partners, which is partnered with applicant Famous Four. It shows a “standard” registry getting hundreds of thousands of registrations after a year. It’s typical for investor pitch decks to include glowing projections, but this is radically different than Afilias’ numbers.