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ICANN expects 646 new TLD applications to be withdrawn

ICANN forecasts 646 applications will be withdrawn, mostly after the initial evaluation period.

ICANN66 applications for new top level domain names have been withdrawn as of today. For budgeting purposes, ICANN projects that number will explode to 646 before everything is said and done.

The number was disclosed in ICANN’s proposed operating plan and budget for the 2014 financial year, which begins in July 2013. The number is up from a previously budgeted 545 applications withdrawn.

ICANN expects 105 applications will be withdrawn before they pass through the initial evaluation phase. Applicants get a 70% refund of their $185,000 application fee in this case.

A further 390 applications are projected to be withdrawn after initial evaluation but before string contention resolutions, dispute resolution is completed, or extended evaluation. ICANN is betting that many applicants in contention sets will withdraw as applicants strike deals with each other. These applicants will get a 35% refund.

The forecast shows a further 150 applications withdrawn after string contention resolution, dispute resolution, and extended evaluation. These applicants will get 20% of their money back.

This is a reverse of the prior forecast, which predicted most withdraws would come only after final contention resolution. Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if more companies settle their contention sets privately before initial evaluation results are posted.

One application was withdrawn within 21 days of getting a GAC Early Warning. That applicant received an 80% refund.

ICANN applications

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  1. SF says

    Partnerships, I presume, would be one method.

    What has not really been examined in this new world of .superfragacalalisticexprialidowhatthefuckever is the likelihood (or lack thereof) of a vibrant aftermarket.

    The Prosperity of domain names can be attributed to the aftermarket.

    Once upon a time, a domain name was merely a technical requirement for a website.

    Then, one day, it became clear. There’s gold in them thar hills!

    The pioneers (Rick, Frank and a few others) discovered that good domain names were investments that could be purchased and held as an investment …to be sold later.

    As far as extensions go, this investment market it limited. At least for now.

    No matter how successful the initial “strike” is for new TLD’s, the long term success will be determined by the aftermarket.

    The sheer number of new TLD’s leads one to surmise that an aftermarket will be diluted by the those very numbers.

    And, ICANN lived happily ever after. KA-CHING!

  2. John Colascione says

    Sounds like SF is hitting the mail on the head to me. Well said and probably accurate. This new mess will probably go no where in the long run, it’s just a lot of buzz that’s going to fizzle out.

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